In August 2026, Stillwater had 70 homes for sale, up from 56 a year earlier. Months of supply rose from 1.9 to 2.8, according to the Minneapolis Area Realtors local market update. On a portal summary, that looks like a market tilting toward buyers. The same report shows that homes which sold that month took a median of 33 days to do it. A year earlier the median was 48.
Both numbers are accurate, and they point the same way once you see how they're built. Stillwater's supply figure went up mainly because fewer homes are changing hands, not because buyers are passing on what's listed. Over the past year, sales have shrunk faster in Stillwater than almost anywhere around it, in a town whose development list shows a single new for-sale townhome project. The first real addition to that supply, a 106-unit townhome community on Manning Avenue, has its approvals and is not yet open for sales.
How a months-of-supply figure gets made
Months of supply compares homes on the market with the recent pace of sales. Stillwater's figures follow the rolling 12-month closings closely. The city recorded 304 closed sales in the 12 months ending August 2026, about 25 a month. Seventy listings divided by 25 comes to roughly 2.8 months. A year earlier, 360 closings worked out to 30 a month, and 56 listings divided by 30 comes to about 1.9.
So half of the jump came from the bottom of the fraction. Closings over the 12-month window fell 15.6%. New listings fell 8.8% in the same period, from 419 to 382. Fewer homes came to market, fewer sold, and the homes that did sell went faster. The 12-month median days on market dropped from 48 to 39. In a market where buyers were stepping back, you would expect the reverse: listings going stale and selling time getting longer.
The August snapshot makes the same point more sharply, but more loosely. Only 26 homes closed that month, compared with 41 in August 2025. MAAR itself cautions that "activity for one month can sometimes look extreme due to small sample size." The 12-month figures are the steadier evidence, and they tell the same story.
Stillwater is shrinking while its neighbors aren't
Stillwater's slowdown looks local once you set it beside the towns a buyer is likely to compare it with. Here is the 12-month window ending August 2026 from MAAR's local reports.
| Area, rolling 12 months to Aug. 2026 | Closed sales | Change | Median days on market | Median sale price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stillwater | 304 | -15.6% | 39 | $465,000 |
| Lake Elmo | 256 | +20.2% | 48 | $657,450 |
| Washington County | 3,968 | -0.7% | 47 | $437,500 |
| Oak Park Heights | 39 | -2.5% | 44 | $420,000 |
| Bayport | 31 | +10.7% | 64 | $485,000 |
Washington County as a whole held its sales volume nearly flat. Lake Elmo, which borders Stillwater across Manning Avenue, grew its closings by a fifth. Stillwater lost about one sale in six, and it still had the shortest median selling time in the group. Bayport and Oak Park Heights move few enough homes that a handful of sales can swing their figures. Neither one shows the pattern Stillwater does, with closings falling and selling time getting shorter at once.
Metro-wide, August 2026 showed 11,698 homes for sale across the 16-county region, 3.0 months of supply, and a median of 45 days on market, up 7.1% from a year earlier. Stillwater's inventory is rising faster than the metro's, while its selling time is moving the opposite way.
What Lake Elmo has that Stillwater doesn't
The research did not turn up a source that splits Lake Elmo's sales into new construction and resale, so the exact share of new homes isn't known. What is on record is how much Lake Elmo has been building. Metropolitan Council permit data shows 199 new housing units permitted in Lake Elmo in 2025, 151 detached homes and 48 townhomes. The pipeline behind that number includes:
- North Star, approved in three additions of 105, 64 and 34 lots. The City Council reviewed and approved the 34-lot third addition on March 17, 2026. Builders marketing there include Creative Homes, which advertises a final phase of homesites starting at $719,900, and Robert Thomas Homes, whose Classic Collection starts at $420,900.
- Inwood 8th Addition, where a 2025 Lake Elmo staff report described an M/I Homes plan for 149 attached townhomes built in three phases, plus a 123-unit apartment building by Rachel Development.
- Limerick Village, which Finance & Commerce reported in August 2025 as a proposal for 67 single-family homes, 221 townhomes, 271 apartments and 120 senior-living units, with mass grading expected in spring 2026.
New construction adds homes that would never come to market otherwise, because no current owner has to decide to sell. A resale market has only one source of listings, owners who choose to move. Stillwater's new listings fell 8.8% over the year. The only for-sale townhome project on the city's development list has yet to open for sales.
The one new project, and where it stands
Stillwater's project list includes one for-sale townhome development, Brixton. It sits on 16 acres at the southeast corner of Manning Avenue and 80th Street North, on the Lake Elmo side of town. The developer is Jason Palmby of Chaska-based Magellan Land Development, working with Pulte Homes of Minnesota. Its path through City Hall this year went like this:
- April 7, 2026. The City Council deadlocked 2-2 on a 108-unit plan, with one member absent.
- Spring 2026. The developer cut the plan to 106 units to make room for sidewalks and a larger community space with a sunken fire pit, a walking path and a gazebo. The developer also agreed to pause work during Friday afternoon and Saturday events already booked in 2026 at Trellis Weddings, the outdoor venue just east of the site, and to give $5,000 toward vegetative screening.
- May 5, 2026. The council approved the planned unit development and preliminary plat 4-1. Council member Ryan Collins voted no, citing what Community Development Director Jason Zimmerman relayed as a dislike of the "garage-dominated streetscape."
- June 16, 2026. The council approved the final plat. The conditions require satisfactory civil engineering plans before any earthwork, Washington County and Brown's Creek Watershed District permits, a signed development agreement, paid impact fees, and an approved construction staging plan.
As of early October 2026, Pulte's community page still lists Brixton as "Coming Soon," with a starting price in the low $400s. In February, the Pioneer Press reported expected prices from the mid-$400,000s to the upper $500,000s, depending on options. The research found no confirmation that grading has begun. Until these homes are built and close, they add nothing to the sales count behind Stillwater's months of supply.
The other large approved project on the same corridor is Central Commons, a 35-acre mixed-use site at Manning Avenue and Highway 36. The city lists it with a market-rate apartment building, and its timeline as "Unknown." Hy-Vee withdrew as the grocery anchor in August 2025. Either way, apartments are rental supply and would not add to the for-sale count.
What the prices say about the homes that do sell
If buyers were in control, prices would show it first. Stillwater's 12-month median sale price slipped 1.7% to $465,000, while the average rose 2.9% to $557,380. When the average climbs and the median dips, sales at the top of the range are holding up better than sales in the middle. That fits the metro trend: the Star Tribune tied July's gains to a recent flurry of upper-bracket sales.
Over 12 months, Stillwater sellers received 99.4% of their original list price, up from 98.8%. August by itself was softer, at 97.6% of list, with price per square foot down to $229 from $254. With only 26 closings that month, those August figures could reflect which homes happened to sell as much as any change in how buyers are bidding. For a buyer, a realistic reading is that well-priced homes in Stillwater still sell close to asking and fairly quickly. A few more listings have arrived, and late-summer negotiating room was modest, not wide.
Mortgage rates are part of the backdrop. The Star Tribune put the average 30-year rate at 6.55% in mid-July and said affordability was still a struggle, even as move-up buyers with equity drove higher-priced purchases.
A short FAQ
Is September 2026 data available for Stillwater? Not as of this writing. MAAR's report list still showed August 2026 as the most recent collection.
Does Stillwater Township follow the same pattern? It is a separate MAAR report with very few sales, 14 closings over 12 months, at a median of $765,475. That sample is too small to read a trend from.
When could Brixton change the supply picture? The city's project page originally expected site work in 2026 and townhome construction starting in fall 2026. The final plat conditions have to be met first, and Pulte has not announced a sales launch.
If you're weighing Stillwater against Lake Elmo or other parts of Washington County, MN Living Real Estate can go through the 12-month numbers with you, street by street. That includes how quickly homes in your price range have been selling and where the Manning Avenue projects stand once construction starts. Let's Connect.
